Romanovskis: If ‘airBaltic’ were to reduce its flights in Lithuania, LOT could fill the gap – what would that mean for passengers?

Andrius Romanovskis, President of the Lithuanian Business Confederation, suggested that, in such a scenario, the Polish airline LOT could fill some of the resulting gap. Although this is not an officially announced expansion plan for LOT, the discussion itself is important, as direct connections are far more than just a convenient way for passengers at Vilnius Airport and Lithuanian businesses to travel abroad.

This issue is becoming particularly relevant because airBaltic’s situation in the Lithuanian market is not as clear-cut as it might appear at first glance. As recently as autumn 2025, the company announced that it planned to increase the number of flights in Lithuania by 16 per cent for the 2026 summer season and to base a third aircraft in Vilnius. Lithuanian Airports also emphasised at the time that the company saw growing potential in the Lithuanian market. 

However, some of these plans were revised in 2026. airBaltic cancelled the planned Vilnius–Kraków route, and the frequency of flights on some other routes was also reduced. The company explained that the decisions were driven by commercial circumstances and rising fuel prices. This does not in itself mean that airBaltic is withdrawing from Lithuania, but it does indicate that the airline, like other carriers, is actively reviewing the profitability of its routes and passenger demand. 

‘airBaltic’ in Lithuania: expansion and more cautious decisions at the same time

To understand why there is talk of a possible increase in LOT’s role in the first place, it is worth looking at airBaltic’s position in the Lithuanian market. The Latvian airline has been one of the most important carriers at Vilnius Airport for many years. Its business model is not based solely on direct flights from Vilnius. A very important part of the company’s strategy is channelling passenger traffic via Riga, where airBaltic has its main hub.

This means that, for Lithuanian passengers, ‘airBaltic’ often offers more than just a flight from Vilnius to a specific European city. The company also offers the opportunity to access a much wider network via Riga. For the summer season of 2026, airBaltic planned to connect Vilnius, Kaunas and Palanga in Lithuania with more than 20 direct routes, whilst via Riga, passengers were offered the chance to reach more than 80 cities. 

The company’s position in Vilnius had also been strengthened over a long period. There were plans to base a third airBaltic aircraft there and to increase the number of flights on certain routes. For example, there were plans to increase the frequency of flights to Paris, Munich, Prague, Berlin, Málaga, Nice and Majorca. 

It is therefore too early to speak of a sudden withdrawal of airBaltic from Lithuania. The current situation is more akin to an optimisation of the route network. The airline may reduce services on some routes whilst strengthening others, and redirect some of its capacity to where it sees greater demand and a better return.

However, it is precisely in such a market that opportunities arise for competitors.

Why is LOT mentioned among airBaltic’s potential competitors?

LOT is no random choice in this context. Poland’s national airline already has a strong position in Lithuania, and its main advantage is Warsaw Airport as a hub. For passengers travelling from Vilnius, LOT can offer not only flights to Warsaw but also connections to numerous destinations across Europe and the rest of the world.

According to data from Lithuanian airports, in the first half of 2025, LOT accounted for around 6 per cent of the total air carrier market in Lithuania. SAS held the same share, whilst airBaltic’s share stood at around 14 per cent. The largest carrier was Ryanair, accounting for 47 per cent of the market. At that time, Warsaw was one of the main direct routes from Lithuania and accounted for around 5 per cent of passenger traffic. 

This indicates that LOT already has an established passenger base in Lithuania. In other words, should additional capacity become available in the market, LOT would not have to start from scratch.

Another important sign emerged at the start of 2026. Lithuanian Airports and LOT agreed to discontinue flights between Vilnius and London City from the end of March 2026 and to redirect some of the freed-up capacity to the Vilnius–Warsaw route. Lithuanian Airports based this decision on an analysis of passenger flows and declining demand for the London City route. 

This is an important detail when discussing LOT’s future in Lithuania. The company is already demonstrating that it can reallocate capacity within the Lithuanian market and strengthen a route that is strategically important to it.

Could LOT really replace airBaltic in Lithuania?

The short answer would be: partly yes, but LOT would most likely not be able to fully replace airBaltic, at least in the short term.

The reason is simple. ‘airBaltic’ and LOT have different business models. ‘airBaltic’ is strongly focused on the Baltic market and organises its network around Riga. Vilnius, Kaunas and Palanga are a natural part of its Baltic market. LOT, on the other hand, relies primarily on Warsaw Airport and the Polish market.

If airBaltic were to decide to discontinue one or more routes from Vilnius, LOT could be one of the airlines to see an opportunity to fill the gap. However, this would not necessarily mean that LOT would take over the same route with the same frequency.

In the aviation industry, it is not the case that when one airline withdraws from a route, another automatically steps in. Airlines assess passenger numbers, ticket prices, competition, airport charges, aircraft availability, fuel prices and whether the route can generate sufficient revenue not only from direct passengers but also from transit traffic.

Therefore, if, for example, airBaltic were to reduce the number of flights to a particular European city, LOT would not necessarily rush to fly to the same destination. It might be more beneficial for the company to strengthen the Warsaw route and offer connecting flights via its hub.

What would this mean for Lithuanian passengers?

At first glance, a greater role for LOT in Lithuania would be good news for passengers, as greater competition usually means more choice. However, in the aviation market, the benefits of competition do not depend solely on the number of airlines operating from a particular airport.

The most important question is which routes they offer and how often they fly.

For a Lithuanian passenger, a direct flight from Vilnius to Paris, Munich, Berlin or another European city is a completely different product to a journey involving a stopover in Warsaw or Riga. A direct flight saves time, reduces the risk of missing a connecting flight and is often particularly important for business travellers.

On the other hand, LOT’s extensive network via Warsaw is also of great value. Passengers do not necessarily need a direct flight to every city in the world. Sometimes, a single convenient change at a major airport is more efficient than a direct route with limited frequency.

Therefore, LOT’s expansion in Lithuania could be beneficial even if the airline were not to replace specific ‘airBaltic’ routes. It could strengthen Vilnius’s position as an international air transport hub via the Warsaw hub.

Why is it important for Lithuania, in general, to have several strong airlines?

This question goes beyond the competition between airBaltic and LOT. It is important for Lithuania that Vilnius Airport should not be overly dependent on the decisions of one or a few carriers.

Airlines change their strategies very quickly. A route that looks promising today may be scaled back a year later due to fuel prices, a shortage of aircraft, engine problems, the geopolitical situation or changes in passenger demand.

We have seen this happen time and again with airBaltic. In 2025, the company faced problems with engine availability and other cost pressures, yet at the same time maintained its growth ambitions. In 2025, airBaltic’s revenue stood at €779.3 million; the company carried 5.2 million passengers across its network, whilst its net loss stood at €44.3 million – significantly less than in 2024. 

The company also has strategic investors. In 2025, the Lufthansa Group acquired convertible bonds worth €14 million, which would form the basis for a 10 per cent stake in airBaltic should the company be listed on the stock exchange. 

This means that airBaltic is not a company that is simply trying to survive by cutting back on flights. It is also seeking to restructure its business model, expand its ACMI operations, make full use of its fleet and strengthen its financial position.

Therefore, when discussing airBaltic in Lithuania, we should avoid the overly simplistic scenario that the company is cutting flights and will soon be replaced by LOT. The reality is likely to be far more complex.

Competition between airBaltic and LOT could benefit Vilnius

If a situation were indeed to arise in the market where airBaltic were to reduce some of its capacity in Lithuania, this could present an opportunity for LOT and other airlines. However, this process should not be viewed as simply one carrier being replaced by another.

The Vilnius Airport market is served by Ryanair, Wizz Air, SAS, LOT, airBaltic, Finnair, Lufthansa, Turkish Airlines and other airlines. Data from Lithuanian airports shows that the market is already quite diverse, with passenger flows distributed across different business models – from low-cost carriers to traditional network carriers. 

Therefore, Lithuania’s biggest challenge is not to choose whether we prefer airBaltic or LOT. It is far more important to create the conditions that will encourage airlines to base their aircraft in Vilnius, increase flight frequencies and launch new routes.

The role of the airport is also crucial here. In the aviation market, airlines do not base their decisions solely on how many people want to fly. Airport charges, flight time slots, infrastructure, marketing and flight promotion models, demand for business travel, and the ability to fill the aircraft not only with Lithuanian passengers but also with transit passengers.

This is precisely why competition between LOT and airBaltic could be beneficial for Lithuania. The more strong network carriers view Vilnius as a promising base or an important market hub, the lower the risk that a decision by a single airline will automatically create a significant gap in Lithuania’s air transport network.

Will airBaltic cut back on flights in Lithuania?

At present, there is no reason to believe that airBaltic intends to withdraw substantially from the Lithuanian market. On the contrary, the airline had planned a significant expansion of its operations in Lithuania for the 2026 season, including an additional aircraft in Vilnius and a higher number of flights. 

However, some specific routes have been adjusted. Flights between Vilnius and Kraków have been cancelled, whilst the frequency of flights on some other routes has been reduced. This indicates that the company assesses the commercial prospects of each route on a case-by-case basis. 

Therefore, the LOT alternative put forward by Andrius Romanovskis should currently be viewed more as a scenario worth considering, rather than as a decision that has already been taken.

Could LOT become a stronger player in the Lithuanian aviation market?

There is certainly potential for this. LOT already has a significant market share in Lithuania, a strong hub in Warsaw and experience in serving transit passengers. Furthermore, in 2026, the company, together with Lithuanian Airports, decided to strengthen the Vilnius–Warsaw route, which indicates that this route is considered strategically important. 

However, LOT’s growth rate will not be determined solely by whether airBaltic scales back its operations. Far more important will be passenger demand, ticket prices, conditions at Vilnius Airport and how LOT itself assesses the potential of the Lithuanian market.

If Vilnius continues to grow as a centre for business, tourism and transit, it is only natural to expect that more and more airlines will compete for Lithuanian passengers. In such a situation, airBaltic will have to maintain a competitive offering, whilst LOT will have the opportunity to strengthen its position.

What does this story mean for Lithuania?

The key message of this discussion is not that airBaltic is supposedly about to withdraw, but that there is constant competition for passengers in the Lithuanian aviation market.

airBaltic remains one of the most important carriers in Lithuania and has an extensive network via Riga. LOT already has a strong position in Vilnius and can strengthen it via Warsaw. Meanwhile, Ryanair and Wizz Air are competing in the low-cost segment, whilst traditional carriers such as Lufthansa, Finnair and SAS offer connections via their hub airports.

For passengers, this means one key thing – the future of air travel in Lithuania will not be determined by a single airline. If one airline reduces its capacity, opportunities will arise for others in the market. The only question is whether they will be willing to take advantage of them.

Therefore, Andrius Romanovskis’s suggestion that LOT could fill part of the gap left by airBaltic is worth noting, first and foremost as a sign of a broader trend. It is important for Lithuania to have not only a strong ‘airBaltic’, but also several competing carriers that view Vilnius as a long-term market. The more competition there is, along with a variety of routes and convenient connections, the more choice Lithuanian passengers will have.

And most importantly – if, in the future, ‘airBaltic’ were indeed to decide to reduce the number of its flights in Lithuania, one should not assume that the resulting gap would automatically be filled by one specific airline. A far more realistic scenario would be that several carriers would compete for the passengers and routes that have become available. LOT would have one significant advantage in this competition – it is already present in the Lithuanian market, has established the Vilnius–Warsaw route and possesses a strong transit network.

Therefore, in the coming years, it will be worth keeping an eye not only on the number of flights operated by airBaltic in Lithuania, but also on how the plans of LOT, Ryanair, Wizz Air, SAS and other airlines are changing. It is the decisions of these carriers, taken together, that will determine whether Vilnius will become an even stronger regional air transport hub, or whether some European routes will remain dependent on connecting flights at other airports.

At present, the claim that LOT could take over part of airBaltic’s market share in Lithuania is a scenario, not a fact. However, the scenario itself is entirely realistic: the Lithuanian air transport market is growing, competition is shifting, and airlines are constantly reassessing which routes are worth flying. Ultimately, the airlines that succeed will be those that offer Lithuanian passengers not only good ticket prices, but also convenient timetables, a wide range of direct routes and reliable connections to the rest of the world.